Fiscal Cliff: A huge policy blunder has been averted (for now), but fiscal tightening will take place. With additional negotiations to come, markets will be volatile, but long-term investors could find buying opportunities.
US Economy. The United States will maintain slow but positive growth, much like in 2012, but should not enter a new recession. Look for stronger growth as the year progresses.
Interest Rates and Inflation. The 10-year US Treasury yield should gradually rise through 2013 to 2.25%. Inflation should remain in the 2% range unless growth or oil prices spike.
Europe. The European Central Bank (EC B) changed the game by taking the risk of banking collapse off the table. But key reforms are likely a year or more away. In the meantime, growth is elusive.
China and Emerging Markets. China and emerging markets regain their growth trajectories in 2013, helping cushion any weaknesses in the United States and Europe.
Risk-On/Risk-Off Redux? Markets are likely to remain volatile early in the year, but should respond more to fundamentals as clarity emerges.
US Stock Market. While risks are elevated and valuations are relatively high, we still see opportunities, particularly in US mega caps.
Global Stocks. Emerging markets offer faster growth, cheap valuations, lower inflation and relatively muted volatility.
Fixed Income. What used to be “risk free” (i.e., Treasuries) has actually become risky. Over the long-term, we suggest migrating toward credit sectors.
High Yield Bonds. Investors should consider diversifying their exposures in high yield to include loans and secured credit. The asset class continues to offer compelling yield and return potential, and default rates remain low.
Municipal Bonds. Municipal bonds offer compelling taxable equivalent yields in the face of higher taxes. Munis are unlikely to lose their taxexempt status.
Volatility. Alternative asset classes and strategies are increasingly mainstream and offer the opportunity to enhance portfolio diversification.
source : BlackRock:
Note: Tous les trades sont discutés, annoncés et partagés en temps réel sur L'Académie des Graphs.
Sur le site public ici, Le portefeuille est mis à jour une fois par jour vers midi. Le portefeuille représente mes convictions personnelles consolidées (de mes différents courtiers) et n'est pas pas une incitation à l'achat ni à la vente. Il s'agit de mon portefeuille dynamique donc agressif. J'ai un autre portefeuille bas de laine long terme diffusé exclusivement sur l'Académie des Graphs. Mon capital et mon horizon de placement sur chaque titre ne sont surement pas les mêmes que les vôtres. Le portefeuille est là pour partager avec vous en toute transparence mes convictions au quotidien mais n'a pas vocation à être suivi.
La performance annuelle inclus les gains ou moins values latentes des positions en cours. Cela inclus aussi les gains ou pertes de change sur les actions hors Euro (c'est reflété dans la perf de chaque action individuelle). Les éventuels retraits sont annoncés. La performance est donc en net.
Performance 2023: +38%; 2022: +46%; 2021: +122%; 2020: +121%; 2019: +79%; 2018: +21%; 2017: +24%; 2016: +12%; 2015: +45%; 2014: +30%; 2013:+72%...
