Zulauf: Europe is going to be key this year for the markets and the economy. China is slowing; the emerging world is slowing, and the U.S. is barely above water, constrained by its structural problems. I have called the euro a misconstruction since its birth. The problem is a difference in competitiveness among European countries, and you can’t solve it by lending money to the less competitive countries. You have to deflate wages and prices in the south, and inflate the north. But given Germany’s history, it will never inflate.
The members of the euro zone agreed in December that each country could have a structural deficit of no more than half a percent of GDP. If a deficit goes above 3% of GDP, the country will be sanctioned. This agreement now has to be ratified in all countries. But when you agree to such a prescription and you are uncompetitive, your currency is overvalued by 30%, you can’t devalue, and your nominal interest rates are too high, that is a recipe for a depression. It is a death sentence. Several countries won’t ratify the contract, and the next day their markets will be repriced accordingly. They will exit the euro, and the turmoil will go to the next level. Greece is bust in either case. If you can devalue your currency by 40% or 50% in that situation, at least you will have the chance to see the sun again and recover.
…
Zulauf: The banking system goes bust. Assume Greece won’t repay anything, or at most 10% of its total debt. It is not just the government but the private sector that is bust. That means banks in other countries will be in trouble, which means they will be nationalized. Governments won’t have the money to pay for this, so they will assume even more debt. That is the chain of events I expect in 2012, and if you believe it won’t affect the U.S. you are dreaming. The estimated notional value of the over-the-counter fixed-income-derivatives market in Europe is estimated to be about 60 trillion euros. There are many links to the U.S. banking system, although we don’t yet know who is positioned how. If one country exits the euro, all hell will break loose.
…
Zulauf: Every European country will be in recession in 2012, and probably in 2013.
source : barons
Note: Tous les trades sont discutés, annoncés et partagés en temps réel sur L'Académie des Graphs.
Sur le site public ici, Le portefeuille est mis à jour une fois par jour vers midi. Le portefeuille représente mes convictions personnelles consolidées (de mes différents courtiers) et n'est pas pas une incitation à l'achat ni à la vente. Il s'agit de mon portefeuille dynamique donc agressif. J'ai un autre portefeuille bas de laine long terme diffusé exclusivement sur l'Académie des Graphs. Mon capital et mon horizon de placement sur chaque titre ne sont surement pas les mêmes que les vôtres. Le portefeuille est là pour partager avec vous en toute transparence mes convictions au quotidien mais n'a pas vocation à être suivi.
La performance annuelle inclus les gains ou moins values latentes des positions en cours. Cela inclus aussi les gains ou pertes de change sur les actions hors Euro (c'est reflété dans la perf de chaque action individuelle). Les éventuels retraits sont annoncés. La performance est donc en net.
Performance 2023: +38%; 2022: +46%; 2021: +122%; 2020: +121%; 2019: +79%; 2018: +21%; 2017: +24%; 2016: +12%; 2015: +45%; 2014: +30%; 2013:+72%...
