Voici les prévisions 2013 de Morgan Stanley. Qui donne 3 facteurs haussiers pour les actions en 2013, en Europe. Les 3 facteurs sont liés à la croissance économique, aux marges des entreprises et au price earning ratio. Sur les dernières semaines, Morgan Stanley dit avoir observé des éléments intéressants et encourageants concernant les 3 facteurs, ce qui tend à prouver que le début 2013 demeurera haussier pour les actions. Voici ci-dessous la note de Morgan Stanley.
1) Our Global PMI is at its highest level since April – Our Global PMI series, which is a combination of Euro area, China and US PMIs weighted by the geographical revenue split of European companies, has risen to 49.8 this month which is the highest level since April. Over the past year, we have been highlighting the close correlation between our Global PMI and the performance of MSCI Europe. Our economists’ Euro area surprise gap index has recently moved out of recession territory too. The economic data out of China last week affirmed our economists’ view that a growth recovery is on track. The G10 economic surprise index has resumed its upward trajectory after a modest pullback in late-October.
2) The recent outperformance of commodities over Oil is a positive for corporate margins – Although we are not arguing for margin expansion in 2013, we do believe that the pace of margin decline has troughed. Our proprietary Margin Lead Indicator is pointing to close-to-flat margins next year. The recent fall in the oil price relative to other industrial commodities should be viewed as a positive for corporate margins and global growth in general.
3) The 12m forward PE in Europe has risen above 11x – The 12m PE in Europe has risen to 11.3x for the first time since April 2010. Back in April 2010, economic indicators were peaking, the uncertainty over the European policy situation was rising and European mutual funds were seeing equity outflows. This time economic indicators appear to be troughing, the tail risks around the European policy front (appear to) have been significantly reduced, core bond yields are nudging higher and European mutual funds have stopped seeing equity outflows. These factors lead us to believe that the PE could rise further to our base case assumption of 12x in 2013.”
Source: Morgan Stanley
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