- Emerging market balance of payments/currency problems that are reminiscent of the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
- Looming debt ceiling debate in Washington.
- Fed tapering isn’t a sure thing for September, » but if not, it speaks to weakening economic backdrop. »
- A third Greek bailout and that while Europe might have emerged from a recession, there is no catalyst for a recovery.
- U.S. GDP estimates are being revised down.
- Recent economic data shows that Canada has hit a « rough patch. »
- « Some countries are contracting now (Thailand, Mexico and Netherlands). »
- « Sharp bond spasm… spillover effects to other markets? Long bond is -17.5% in total return in the past 3+ months (which only happened twice before). »
- Poor earnings for American retailers and a weak start to the back-to-school shopping season.
- The « leadership vacuum at the Fed. » The absence of a Bernanke speech at Jackson Hole also makes the policy backdrop unclear.
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