La déclaration cette semaine de Mario Draghi et sa conséquence sur la hausse des marchés financiers prouve bien si besoin encore était que c’est bien l’Europe qui est devenue le driver des marchés et non plus les US. Résultats du premier semestre et rumeur d’un quantitative easing 3 semblait mettre l’Europe en arrière plan, mais clairement en cette fin de semaine ce n’est pas le cas. La dernière étude de Crédit Suisse confirme que 54 % des investisseurs pensent que les plus grands risques demeurent en Europe. Il va donc falloir continuer de scruter les moindres annonces…
“Unsurprisingly, respondents continue to see the Euro-area crisis as the main threat to global growth over the next twelve months (54% of respondents, compared to 47% in the survey at our macro conference in May). However, the big change is China. In our May survey, only 1% respondents saw China as the most significant threat; this figure has now risen to 24% (for details on our own concerns about Chinese growth, see our report Q3 asset allocation: stay overweight equities, July 18).
Only 17% of respondents in our survey see the US fiscal cliff as the most significant macro risk, compared to 48% in May. However, US-based investors appear more concerned about the US fiscal cliff than their European peers, with 24% seeing it as the most important threat to the global growth outlook, compared to only 13% of UK respondents and 19% of those in Continental Europe.
Our view is that the actuality of the fiscal cliff itself could be a non-issue (we think fiscal tightening of 1½% of GDP is likely, compared to fiscal tightening of 1% of GDP in 2012). However, the threat of the the fiscal cliff may mean that corporates postpone capex and employment decisions to Q1 2013 when they hope there will be greater visibility on both the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling negotiations. The recent decline in CEO business confidence and Philly Fed capex spending intentions are signs that this might already be happening.”
Source: Credit Suisse
PS: Je te recommande aussi de lire
Note: Tous les investissements sont discutés, annoncés et partagés en temps réel sur L'Académie des Graphs. Le portefeuille représente mes convictions personnelles consolidées (de mes différents courtiers) et n'est pas une incitation à l'achat ni à la vente. La performance en cours inclus les gains ou moins values latentes et l'impact du change sur les actions étrangères. Performance 2023: +38%; 2022: +46%; 2021: +122%; 2020: +121%; 2019: +79%; 2018: +21%; 2017: +24%; 2016: +12%; 2015: +45%; 2014: +30%; 2013:+72%, 2012:+9%, 2011:-11%... Suivez mon portefeuille et mes positions gratuitement en cliquant-ici
